In the past few days, Sino-US trade has once again confronted the fire line. The US government announced that since May 10, 2019, the tariff rate on the $200 billion list of goods imported from China has been raised from 10% to 25%. The Chinese government announced that it will increase tariffs on certain imports from the United States from June 1.
Based on this, we have summarized the relevant export situation in the past year. From the perspective of the proportion of different products to the US export market, there is no obvious unified trend change, and the overall impact is small.
In 2018, exports to the US accounted for 19% and 23% respectively.
From 2018 to the first quarter of 2019, the overall export of refrigerator freezer showed a growth trend, but the largest share of exports to the United States went down. In 2018, due to trade friction and the increase in unit price, the export volume to the US decreased but the export volume increased. This year, the export volume of refrigerators to the US fell in the Q1, especially the export volume fell by nearly 25%, and the export volume also dropped to 12. %.
For this year's overall situation, due to the relatively high export to the United States, except for Haier's relatively small global impact, most other companies believe that the situation is not very optimistic, especially in terms of profits, if the exchange rate does not appear to depreciate significantly to hedge tariffs and costs. Then, the profits of exporting companies will be greatly affected. In the future, it is more likely that buyers and manufacturers will balance the tax point. In the long run, it may force the small refrigerator production line to transfer to low-cost and low-tariff areas such as Southeast Asia, but it will take at least two years or more.
Household air conditioner
Exports to the US accounted for 16% in 2018
The Sino-US trade war has been open for a year, and the short-term impact on China's air-conditioning industry's export business is limited, but the export rhythm of the 2019 cold year is still affected. In the fourth quarter of last year, China’s export of air conditioners to the United States surged. In the first quarter of this year, it fell by 19.2% year-on-year. The overall pace was ahead of schedule. According to the situation in previous years, by the end of April, the air conditioners exported to the United States accounted for about 70% of the whole year. After May, they gradually entered the off-season. This year's closing is advanced, so the export impact on the 2019 cold year is limited. The main impact should be the 2020 cold year, on the one hand, the changes in local market demand, and on the other hand, the competition between export enterprises.
For this addition, the general feedback from the company will definitely affect shipments, but the impact is not significant. In addition, China's air-conditioning products exported to the United States are mainly window machines and mobile air conditioners. There are no related products in the United States. Although enterprises are relatively passive in the short term, in the long run, as long as there is demand in the market, the tariffs imposed will eventually pass. To local consumers in the United States. For air-conditioning export enterprises, early export is only a temporary solution. In the long run, enterprises are considering the global transfer and layout of production capacity.
Air conditioner motor
Exports to the US accounted for 42% in 2018
From the data point of view, in 2018, China's air-conditioner motor overseas export market accounted for about 42% of direct exports to the United States. Compared with 2017, due to the slight increase in tariffs, the US-China situation is always in a subtle relationship. Prepare goods in advance to avoid risks. This situation continued to slow down in the first quarter of 2019. Judging from the product breakdown, the addition continues the list of last year, which has a greater impact on the export of single-phase AC motors. From the perspective of enterprises, enterprises with North America as the main export are affected, and the overall market is limited.
Exports to the US accounted for 6% in 2018
The United States has imposed a 25% tariff on air-conditioning compressors imported from China since the second half of 2018. Enterprises with a large scale of export to the United States are making reasonable tax avoidance through production line transfer, production base allocation or entrepot trade. In general, China's total exports of compressors to the United States account for a small proportion. In 2018, direct exports to the United States accounted for about 5%. Because the proportion is small, most mainstream compressor companies have limited feedback on the export of enterprises. . But for some trading companies whose main business exports to the United States, it is a fatal blow. Although the trade war has limited impact on the export of the air-conditioning compressor industry, it will have an impact on the allocation of global supporting resources and people's confidence.
Exports to the US accounted for 5% in 2018
From the data point of view, China's refrigerator compressor exports to the United States accounted for a small proportion, in 2018 China's refrigerator compressor overseas export market for direct exports to the United States accounted for about 4.7%, the first quarter of 2019 exports to the United States accounted for about 3% Compared to other products, the impact is relatively small. According to feedback from several major companies, it is understood that there will be little impact on compressor exports in the short term, but the long-term effects still exist. Some companies are also actively studying the long-term impact measures. Among them, some enterprises have plans to build factories overseas, and some enterprises with global layout have orders to transfer.